Other analyses

The narrower and older pieces, kept here so the four main pages stay focused. The detailed versions behind those main pages live here too · June 2026

Comprehensive benchmark

Every KPI, three methodologies, all 15 districts, FY2015–2025 — in one place.

KPIs three ways — internal, Moody's & S&P →
The full picture: ICCSD's financial KPIs calculated under its own internal Ten-Point test, Moody's K-12 scorecard, and S&P's US-government methodology — grouped into seven financial areas (cash, reserves, spending authority, operating, leverage, economy, reporting quality), for ICCSD and 14 peer districts across FY2015–2025, with a district-by-year heatmap for every measure.

Detailed versions

The full, single-topic pages that the main doors summarize.

Three liquidity lenses — reserves, cash, days →
The same liquidity in three units side by side (FY2025) — Moody's reserve and net-cash ratios (% of revenue) plus the district's own Day's Net Cash (days). ICCSD has no reserves figure at all (its FY2025 audit isn't filed) and sits in the weakest group on cash and days.
Day's Net Cash Ratio (the district's own KPI) →
Iowa City's own liquidity metric — days of cash on hand — computed across all peer districts FY2015–2025, with the 90–120 recommended range. Our figures match the district's published dashboard exactly (67 days in 2015 … down to 33 by 2023).
Reserves over time — detailed →
The full reserves story: spending-authority cushion (2017–2025) and audited cash reserves (2020–2025), charted on their own. Summarized on the “Does it have a cushion?” page.
Operating cash — detailed →
Days-cash-on-hand through FY2026, with the full caution note on the unaudited recent years. Summarized on the “Does it have a cushion?” page.
Can we trust the numbers? — reporting integrity →
The reporting-integrity screen: does each district's self-reported (CAR) General Fund tie out to its independently audited books, and does an audit even exist yet? Iowa City's FY2024 audit landed in June 2026 — about two years late, with five material weaknesses — and its FY2025 audit is still unfiled, leaving it the furthest behind of the large districts.
Self-reported vs. audited — full matrix →
The district-by-year grid comparing each district's self-reported (CAR) General Fund balance to its audited books, headlined on Iowa City's FY2023 gap. The detail behind the trust screen.

Narrower & point-in-time topics

Specific questions and snapshots that aren't part of the core story.

Enrollment forecast — cohort-survival model →
A grade-progression-ratio (cohort-survival) forecast for ICCSD K–12 enrollment through 2030, with three scenarios (High / Baseline / Low). Kindergarten entry modeled from Johnson County resident births lagged five years; ESA structural break (2023) modeled separately to capture voucher-program leakage. Architecture complete; refreshes with each October BEDS release.
Building permits as an early enrollment signal →
Corridor housing permits, 2010 to 2025, as a leading indicator for the kindergarten share. Single-family permits lead the K share by about five years (correlation +0.65). The data confirms the Tiffin capture story and shows the share is stabilizing, which supports the Baseline over the Low scenario. A corridor-level signal, not yet an ICCSD-precise input.
Forecast validation and calibration →
Three accuracy upgrades to the enrollment forecast. A held-out backtest (MAPE under 1.5% through five years), a calibration of the kindergarten share on three years instead of one (0.718 vs the single-year 0.728), and pulling measurable open enrollment out of the share. The model holds up, the confidence band widens to its honest width, and the 2030 Baseline moves to about 13,414.
What's driving ICCSD enrollment? →
A waterfall decomposition of every force on ICCSD enrollment from 2011 to 2026: county demographic growth, Clear Creek Amana and Tiffin geographic capture, ESA private-school transfers, and open enrollment. The headcount gap is driven by housing geography, families forming in Tiffin, not families leaving the district.
Is ESA draining ICCSD enrollment? →
A funnel from the 1,440 ICCSD-resident ESA vouchers down to real movement from public to private. About 78% of users were already in private school. The transfer ESA can account for is 120 to 190 students over three years, under 1.5% of the district. The plateau is demographic, not voucher-driven.
Enrollment to revenue bridge →
Turns the 750-student Baseline enrollment decline by 2030 into a recurring revenue headwind of about $6.8M/year at $9,000/student, then sets it against the district's 31-day cash cushion. The piece that makes the enrollment decline financially concrete.
Student Activities fund →
Year-end balance of each district's student-activity fund — self-reported, audited, and per student. Iowa City carries the thinnest cushion of the 15.
FY24 budget question, answered →
How the FY24 audit resolved the budget question: a certified-budget violation in the capital-heavy "other" function ($19.5M over), and no General Fund spending-authority finding — with an honest look at what this page got right and wrong before the audit.
FY24 audit summary →
A plain-English overview of the FY24 Financial and Compliance Report — the opinions, the findings, and how the audited numbers compare to what the district first reported.
Filing timeliness vs. spending control →
An exploratory scatterplot: does how promptly a district files its audited financials relate to how much spending-authority cushion it keeps?
Solon CSD — financial health →
A companion look at a smaller neighboring district, outside the 15-district large-district benchmark.
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