← ICCSD Financial Benchmarking
What's Driving ICCSD Enrollment?
A factor-by-factor decomposition, 2011–2025 · Iowa DOE BEDS PK-12 headcount
ICCSD grew +2,466 students (PK-12) from 2011-12 to 2025-26 — but it would have grown
+2,965 students if it had simply held its 2011 share of a growing Johnson County.
The ~499-student gap is almost entirely explained by Tiffin/Clear Creek Amana absorbing
new residential growth that would otherwise have flowed to ICCSD. On top of that, post-2023 ESA
transfers add a newer, smaller headwind. Looking forward, declining birth cohorts are the dominant risk.
County demographic tailwind
+2,964
Students ICCSD gained from county growth (at 2011 share)
CCA geographic capture
-498
Annual gap vs. 2011 share (2025-26)
ESA net transfers (2025-26)
≈ −130
Public→private switchers (9 % of 1,440 residents)
Open enrollment (net, 2025-26)
+15
More CCA/Solon residents now choose ICCSD than vice versa
The 14-Year Walk (2011-12 → 2025-26)
The bar below shows how ICCSD enrollment changed from its 2011-12 base. Two factors explain
essentially everything: Johnson County grew (green), but CCA/Tiffin absorbed a
disproportionate share of that growth (red).
Enrollment bridge — 2011-12 to 2025-26 (PK-12 headcount)
Sources: Iowa DOE BEDS Public enrollment files, 2011-12 through 2025-26.
Counterfactual = ICCSD at its 2011-12 county share (77.1%) applied to each year's
Johnson County total public enrollment.
What this means: Johnson County's public school enrollment grew by 3,846 students
over 14 years. At ICCSD's 2011 share, it would have captured 2,965 of those — instead it
captured 2,466. The missing 499 students per year (by 2025-26) sit inside Clear Creek Amana CSD.
Johnson County Share — How It Shifted
District share of Johnson County public PK-12 enrollment
All Johnson County public school districts. The CCA share gain mirrors the ICCSD share loss almost exactly;
Solon is flat.
Each Factor, Explained
① County Population & In-Migration
+2,965 students
Johnson County's public K-12 enrollment grew 24 % from 2011 to 2025, driven by
University of Iowa employment growth, hospital and biomedical sector expansion, and
general in-migration from outside Iowa. ICCSD benefited proportionally — this is
the demographic tailwind that lifted all boats.
② Immigrant & ESL Student Growth
~+900 students (est.)
Johnson County immigrant students grew from roughly 20 in 2009-10 to
~1,164 in 2020-21 (Iowa DOE). ICCSD captures roughly 78 % of county
public enrollment, implying ~900 incremental students from this cohort alone.
This is embedded in the county growth figure above — without immigration,
the tailwind would be significantly smaller.
Forward risk: immigration-policy uncertainty could reduce or
reverse this cushion with a 3–5 year lag into K-12 enrollment.
③ CCA / Tiffin Geographic Capture
−499 students/yr (2025-26)
Clear Creek Amana CSD (containing Tiffin) grew 79 % from 2011 to 2025 while
ICCSD grew 20 %. New subdivisions in Tiffin — larger lots, newer construction,
lower price per square foot — attract Iowa City-area families, who then enroll in CCA.
Critically, no transfer event occurs: many of these families moved
to Tiffin before having children, or relocated directly from out of state. The loss
is invisible to open-enrollment data and only measurable via the BEDS headcount gap.
④ ESA Net Transfers (2023+)
≈ −130 students/yr (2025-26)
Iowa's ESA (Educational Savings Account) voucher program launched in 2023.
ICCSD has 1,440 resident ESA users in 2025-26, but the district's own analysis
found ~78 % were already attending private school (inframarginal). Net public→private
switchers are estimated at ~120–190 over three years, or roughly 130 in the
current year.
ESA is separate from the county-share analysis above because private-school
students leave the county BEDS total too. ESA is an additional drag on top of the
geographic capture figure.
⑤ Open Enrollment (Now Net Positive)
+15 net (2025-26)
Students from neighboring districts (CCA, Solon, others) can open-enroll into ICCSD
and vice versa. In 2017-18, ICCSD was losing 272 students more than it gained on net.
By 2023-24 the balance flipped positive. CCA went from +161 net in 2017-18 to −104
net in 2025-26 — its own residents are increasingly choosing ICCSD.
This is a direct signal: families with an active choice are choosing ICCSD
more than before, ruling out district-quality flight as a driver of enrollment pressure.
⑥ Birth Rate — The Forward-Looking Driver
−600 to −900 by 2030 (est.)
Johnson County births peaked around 2007-2011. Students born in those high-birth
years are now 14-18 and approaching graduation; smaller cohorts born 2014-2020
are entering kindergarten. This "pipeline" effect — not ESA, not transfers — is the
primary driver of the projected enrollment decline through 2030.
Three independent forecasts (Iowa DOE 2026 projections, Woolpert 2025, this model's
baseline) all converge on ICCSD K-12 enrollment of ~13,475–13,720 by 2030-31.
Enrollment Over Time — ICCSD, CCA, Counterfactual
PK-12 headcount: ICCSD actual vs. constant-share counterfactual, and CCA
Counterfactual line = ICCSD enrollment if it had held its 2011-12 county share each year.
COVID-related anomaly visible in 2020-21 (ICCSD −511, CCA +73).
Full data table
| SY |
ICCSD |
At 2011 Share |
Gap |
ICCSD % |
CCA |
CCA % |
County Total |
| 2011-12 |
12,405 |
12,405 |
+0 |
77.0% |
1,779 |
11.1% |
16,099 |
| 2012-13 |
12,751 |
12,796 |
-45 |
76.8% |
1,919 |
11.6% |
16,607 |
| 2013-14 |
13,215 |
13,260 |
-45 |
76.8% |
2,022 |
11.8% |
17,208 |
| 2014-15 |
13,397 |
13,502 |
-105 |
76.5% |
2,103 |
12.0% |
17,523 |
| 2015-16 |
13,666 |
13,763 |
-97 |
76.5% |
2,199 |
12.3% |
17,862 |
| 2016-17 |
13,986 |
14,140 |
-154 |
76.2% |
2,331 |
12.7% |
18,351 |
| 2017-18 |
14,405 |
14,581 |
-176 |
76.1% |
2,492 |
13.2% |
18,923 |
| 2018-19 |
14,560 |
14,814 |
-254 |
75.7% |
2,633 |
13.7% |
19,226 |
| 2019-20 |
14,939 |
15,181 |
-242 |
75.8% |
2,750 |
14.0% |
19,701 |
| 2020-21 |
14,428 |
14,819 |
-391 |
75.0% |
2,823 |
14.7% |
19,232 |
| 2021-22 |
14,820 |
15,229 |
-409 |
75.0% |
2,975 |
15.1% |
19,764 |
| 2022-23 |
14,806 |
15,271 |
-465 |
74.7% |
3,061 |
15.4% |
19,818 |
| 2023-24 |
14,776 |
15,305 |
-529 |
74.4% |
3,126 |
15.7% |
19,862 |
| 2024-25 |
15,013 |
15,447 |
-434 |
74.9% |
3,156 |
15.7% |
20,047 |
| 2025-26 |
14,871 |
15,369 |
-498 |
74.6% |
3,190 |
16.0% |
19,945 |
Open Enrollment — Net Position
Open enrollment records students who cross district lines by choice while remaining
a resident of the sending district. Families who moved to Tiffin are invisible here —
this chart shows only active-choice transfers.
Net open enrollment (OE In − OE Out): ICCSD and CCA
Source: Iowa DOE Certified Enrollment by District (Row 8 minus Row 2). Positive = net receiver.
Why this matters: If families were fleeing ICCSD for CCA due to quality concerns,
ICCSD's net open-enrollment would be falling and CCA's would be rising. The opposite happened.
ICCSD flipped from −273 net in 2017-18 to +15 in 2025-26; CCA flipped from +162 to −104.
The enrollment pressure on ICCSD is a housing geography story, not a quality story.
ESA in Context
ESA resident users
1,440 (2025-26)
ICCSD-resident students using an ESA, per Iowa DOE certified enrollment Row 14. Up from 471 in 2023-24.
Net public→private switchers
~130 est. (2025-26)
~78% of ESA users were already attending private school (inframarginal).
Net new transfers from ICCSD public ≈ 120-190 over 3 years total.
CCA geographic capture (2025-26)
499 students/yr
The geographic headwind is roughly 4× larger than ESA on an annual basis
and has been compounding since 2011.
CCA cumulative (2011-2025)
~4,100 student-years
Cumulative student-years of foregone enrollment at constant county share.
At ~$9,000 state aid/student: ≈$37M in foregone foundation aid since 2011.
More on ESA. The full funnel from 1,440 vouchers down to
about 120 to 190 real public-to-private transfers is broken out in the
ESA decomposition page →
Looking Forward (2025–2030)
The birth-rate cliff: Johnson County births peaked around 2007-2011.
Students born in those peak years are graduating now. Smaller cohorts born 2014–2020
will shrink kindergarten classes through ~2025-2030. Three independent forecasts
converge on ~13,475–13,720 ICCSD enrollment by 2030-31 — a decline of
roughly 800–900 students from the 2024-25 certified enrollment of ~14,550.
At $9,000/student in state foundation aid, that is a ~$7–8M annual revenue headwind.
Birth cohort decline
−600 to −900 by 2030
Primary driver of projected decline. Already "baked in" — the children who
will be in K-12 in 2030 are already born.
Continued CCA growth
−50 to −100/yr additional
Tiffin construction pipeline continues; CCA's share likely to
reach 17-18% of county by 2030. Further structural drag on ICCSD headcount.
ESA trajectory
−50 to −150 additional
ESA enrollment is growing. The inframarginal share may shrink as
the pool of "already-private" families is exhausted, increasing marginal impact.
Immigration cushion
Positive but uncertain
Johnson County's immigrant student influx has been a meaningful offset.
Federal immigration policy changes could reduce this cushion with a 3–5 year lag.
→ Full enrollment forecast with three scenarios (Baseline, High, Low)