Month-end GF cash projected from the latest known balance ($13.1M on 2026-03-31) through June 2027, applying FY2025 monthly seasonality scaled to each scenario, then overlaying the board-authorized $25M revenue anticipation warrant and the interfund cash flows.
The $13M starting balance is propped up by borrowing: it includes a $10M loan from the Health Insurance fund, and in May 2026 the GF both lends SAVE $7.32M and draws a $25M warrant — which, after immediately repaying the $10M insurance loan (with interest) and funding SAVE, leaves ~$7.28M of net reserve in the GF.
Property tax arrives in two waves (October, April); on operating cash alone the GF dips below zero in September 2026 — exactly the risk the district's COO memo flags, and the reason for the warrant.
Projected cash low points (troughs)
| Scenario | Operating only | With warrant + interfund |
|---|---|---|
| conservative | $-3.0M (Sep 2026) 🔴 | $-7.2M (Jun 2027) 🔴 negative |
| base | $-0.4M (Sep 2026) 🔴 | $0.4M (Jun 2027) ⚠️ |
| optimistic | $3.3M (Sep 2026) | $10.6M (Sep 2026) |
Month-end cash with warrant + interfund (base, with band)
| Month | Conservative | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2026 | 38.4 | 39.2 | 40.0 | |
| May 2026 | 43.1 | 44.4 | 45.8 | |
| Jun 2026 | 18.2 | 20.1 | 22.9 | |
| Jul 2026 | 15.3 | 17.4 | 20.3 | |
| Aug 2026 | 9.4 | 11.5 | 14.7 | |
| Sep 2026 | 4.3 | 6.8 | 10.6 | |
| Oct 2026 | 40.9 | 44.5 | 49.1 | |
| Nov 2026 | 34.5 | 38.4 | 43.7 | |
| Dec 2026 | 35.9 | 40.3 | 46.2 | |
| Jan 2027 | 28.5 | 33.3 | 39.8 | |
| Feb 2027 | 21.8 | 27.0 | 34.2 | |
| Mar 2027 | 18.8 | 24.4 | 32.2 | |
| Apr 2027 | 45.4 | 51.8 | 60.4 | |
| May 2027 | 16.9 | 23.8 | 33.0 | |
| Jun 2027 | -7.2 | 0.4 | 11.0 | ◀ trough |
Read
- On operating cash alone, the GF goes negative — $-0.4M in Sep 2026 (base). That structural fall gap is what the $25M warrant exists to bridge.
- The warrant works: it lifts the September 2026 low to roughly $7M, comfortably positive. But it is borrowed money — repaid ~$26.5M in spring 2027.
- The real low point moves to Jun 2027: $0.4M (base), $-7.2M (conservative) — right after the warrant is repaid and before the next cycle. PFM's own estimate of June 30, 2027 cash (~$9.95M = 16 days) is insufficient to cover July 2027 payroll (~$11.8M) — which is why a second ~$10M warrant is already planned for FY2027.
- The levers: SAVE's $7.76M repayment (Oct 1), the 1725 N. Dodge sale proceeds (amount TBD), and ultimately the next warrant. The 1725 N. Dodge amount is the biggest unmodeled upside.
- Bottom line: the warrants and interfund loans successfully manage liquidity — the GF stays positive — but only by rolling short-term debt year over year. The recurring trough is the symptom; the structural operating deficit (see the solvency forecast) is the cause.
- Capital-funding constraint: PFM's 6/9/2026 Capital Funding Capacity analysis states the District cannot responsibly borrow for capital until no earlier than spring 2028, and only once monthly liquidity issues are resolved, the General Fund has no outstanding interfund loans, audits are timely, and credit is restored to Aa/AA. So this liquidity crunch is also gating ~$18.5M of planned PPEL capital investment.