ICCSD Forecasting · unofficial analysis

Source-trace report

Every number on the site, traced from primary source through formula to output.

What this page is. A line-by-line audit trail for the whole site — the scorecard, the forecast, and the liquidity model. Audited scorecard figures are recomputed here from raw components (they reproduce in front of you); forecast and liquidity figures are projections, so each input is traced to its source document and the formula is shown with a worked example. A reporter can verify the site without taking our word for anything.

How to verify any number in four steps

  1. Read the value in the published table or its data file (linked below each section).
  2. Apply the formula / inputs shown here — the same ones in the builder scripts.
  3. Open the extraction the components come from (a source-tagged CSV).
  4. Trace to the primary document — ACFR, Iowa DOM filing, or PFM board presentation — in the provenance index at the bottom.

Part A — Scorecard KPIs (audited, recomputed here)

1 · Solvency ratio

Formula (board policy 701.5R1). solvency = (unassigned + assigned GF fund balance) ÷ (GF revenue − AEA flow-through). Target 10–15%, 5% floor.
FYUnassigned + assignedRevenue − AEA= SolvencyPublishedvs. target
FY2020$6,876,239$169,739,238 − $6,529,748
= $163,209,490
4.21%4.21%below floor
FY2021$11,653,470$190,498,914 − $6,829,103
= $183,669,811
6.34%6.35%below target
FY2022$5,356,550$196,760,462 − $6,897,343
= $189,863,119
2.82%2.82%below floor
FY2023$4,960,343$209,488,033 − $7,118,887
= $202,369,146
2.45%2.45%below floor

Recomputed column reproduces the published value exactly. Components: per-year ACFR extraction; AEA from Iowa DOM AEA.

Primary documents (RSM US LLP):

2 · Operating margin

Formula. operating margin = (GF revenue − GF expenditure) ÷ GF revenue.
FYRevenueExpenditure= MarginPublished
FY2020$169,739,238$173,099,142-1.98%-1.98%
FY2021$190,498,914$184,984,176+2.89%+2.89%
FY2022$196,760,462$202,187,558-2.76%-2.76%
FY2023$209,488,033$207,876,297+0.77%+0.77%

Source: Iowa_City_CSD.csv.

3 · Unspent Authorized Budget (UAB) ratio

Formula. UAB ratio = unspent authorized budget ÷ maximum authorized budget (Iowa DOM). Target 5–10%.
FYUnspentMax authorized= UABPublished
FY2020$2,048,574$175,447,7141.17%1.17%
FY2021$3,167,626$188,965,7281.68%1.68%
FY2022$239,935$202,675,4790.12%0.12%
FY2023$-2,505,057$206,781,489-1.21%-1.21%
FY2024$3,304,215$201,462,4451.64%1.64%
FY2025$5,031,593$217,878,9732.31%2.31%

Source: unspent-authorized-budget.csv (Iowa DOM filing).

4 · Total GF balance vs. unspent authority

Policy 701.5R1 #4. Hold a total GF balance ≥ unspent authority, so the District can cash-flow its full legal spending limit.
FYTotal GF balanceUnspent authorityBalance ≥ authority?
FY2020$11,240,140$2,048,574✅ yes
FY2021$15,890,150$3,167,626✅ yes
FY2022$10,063,054$239,935✅ yes
FY2023$10,151,221$-2,505,057✅ (authority ≤ 0)

GF balance from the ACFR extraction; unspent authority from the Iowa DOM UAB file. Met largely because unspent authority is near zero/negative — see the scorecard note.

5 · Enrollment trend

Reported indicator (no target). Certified enrollment — funding follows the student.
FYCertified enrollmentYear-over-year
FY202014,285.0
FY202114,571.6+2.0%
FY202214,283.8-2.0%
FY202314,395.0+0.8%
FY202414,439.8+0.3%
FY202514,378.7-0.4%

Source: certified-enrollment.csv (Iowa DOM).

6 · GO debt vs. the 5% statutory limit

Formula (Iowa Constitution). outstanding GO debt must be ≤ 5% of actual property value.
GO debt as % of actual value
1.07%
$156,815,000 GO debt (FY2023 ACFR) ÷ $14,617,004,801 actual valuation (FY2026 Iowa DOM) = 1.07% — well under the 5% limit (≈ $730,850,240), using ~21% of capacity.

GO debt from the ACFR extraction; actual valuation from assessed-valuation-latest.csv. Debt and valuation are the latest available years (FY2023 / FY2026).

Part B — General Fund forecast (FY2026–FY2029)

The forecast is a projection, not an audited fact: the base case is PFM’s own 7-year GF cash-flow model. There is no single formula to recompute — instead every input is traced to a source, and the fund-balance roll-forward is shown with a worked example that reproduces the published figure.

Key inputs and their sources

InputValueSource document
FY2024 assigned+unassigned anchor$14,881,750FY2024 Certified Annual Report (Iowa DOM cash-reserve-levy worksheet) — cash-reserve-levy.csv
FY2026–29 base GF revenue & expenditurePFM modelPFM Comprehensive Fiscal Analysis (4/1/2026)
AEA flow-through (FY2026)$8,225,000Iowa DOM AEA flow-through — aea-flowthrough.csv
FY2026 max authorized budget (est.)$222,000,000Iowa DOM UAB workbook (estimated; UAB band is wide)

Worked example — FY2026 base solvency

Roll the $14,881,750 FY2024 anchor forward by each year’s operating result (revenue − expenditure + transfers). FY2026 base ends at $1,064,121 assigned+unassigned on an operating result of $-5,999,266 (a deficit). Then:

FY2026 base solvency
0.50%
$1,064,121 ÷ ($219,082,029 − $8,225,000 AEA) = 0.50% — matches the published forecast, far below the 5% floor.
FY (base)Operating resultAssigned+unassignedSolvency
FY2026$-5,999,266$1,064,1210.50%
FY2027$1,489,768$2,553,8891.18%
FY2028$2,778,333$5,332,2222.41%
FY2029$2,611,332$7,943,5543.52%

Builder: gf_forecast.py · output: gf_forecast.csv · inputs: assumptions.csv. FY2024+ are unaudited; read solvency within ~±1.5 pts.

Part C — Monthly liquidity (cash)

The cash forecast starts from the latest known balance, applies FY2025 monthly seasonality, and overlays dated cash events. Each of those three inputs is source-tagged.

Inputs and their sources

Dated cash events (each traced to a board document)

DateEventAmountSource (file · page)Conf.
2026-05-13GF lends SAVE $7.32M for June 1 SAVE bond payment−$7,320,000L_04_02_Resolution Approving Interfund Loan GF to SAVE Iowa City CSD.pdf · p.1high
2026-05-15$25M Taxable General Fund Revenue/Tax Anticipation Warrant issued May 2026$25,000,000B_01_01_Capital Outlay Borrowing Need Memo Update for 4_1.pdf · p.1high
2026-05-15GF repays Health Insurance fund $10M principal + interest from warrant−$10,400,000L_01_01_Resolution Approving Interfund Loan ICCSD.pdf · p.1high
2026-09-30Sale of 1725 N. Dodge Street - proceeds to General FundTBDF_18_02_Hills Property Notice of Public Hearing Deposit of Proceeds to Genera.pdf · p.1low
2026-10-01SAVE repays GF $7.32M principal + interest by 10/1/2026$7,759,200L_04_02_Resolution Approving Interfund Loan GF to SAVE Iowa City CSD.pdf · p.1high
2026-10-15Additional GF loan to SAVE for SAVE Dec 1 2026 interest payment−$2,500,000B_01_01_Capital Outlay Borrowing Need Memo Update for 4_1.pdf · p.1medium
2027-05-15GF repays the $25M warrant (principal + interest) in FY27−$26,500,000B_01_01_Capital Outlay Borrowing Need Memo Update for 4_1.pdf · p.1medium

Builder: liquidity_forecast.py · output: monthly_liquidity.csv · events: known_events.csv. Events without an amount (e.g. the 1725 N. Dodge sale) are excluded from the base lines.

Provenance index

The machine-readable trail is source_links.csv — one row per source document, with its inventory document_id.

document_idsource filefeedsconf.
undated_audits_iowa_city_csd_2020Iowa City CSD-2020.pdfkpi_scorecard.csv :: solvency_ratio_pct, operating_margin_pct (ICCSD FY2020)High
undated_audits_iowa_city_csd_2021Iowa City CSD-2021.pdfkpi_scorecard.csv :: solvency_ratio_pct, operating_margin_pct (ICCSD FY2021)High
undated_audits_iowa_city_csd_2022Iowa City CSD-2022.pdfkpi_scorecard.csv :: solvency_ratio_pct, operating_margin_pct (ICCSD FY2022)High
undated_audits_iowa_city_csd_2023Iowa City CSD-2023.pdfkpi_scorecard.csv :: solvency_ratio_pct, operating_margin_pct (ICCSD FY2023)Medium
undated_district_extractions_iowa_city_csdIowa_City_CSD.csvkpi_scorecard.csv :: solvency_ratio_pct, operating_margin_pct (ICCSD FY2020-2023)high
undated_dom_aea_flowthroughaea-flowthrough.csvkpi_scorecard.csv + gf_forecast.csv :: solvency denominator (revenue - AEA flow-through)high
undated_dom_unspent_authorized_budgetunspent-authorized-budget.csvkpi_scorecard.csv :: uab_pct_of_max + unspent_authority_dollars (ICCSD + 14 peers)high
undated_dom_certified_enrollmentcertified-enrollment.csvkpi_scorecard.csv :: certified_enrollment (FY2020-2025)high
undated_dom_assessed_valuation_latestassessed-valuation-latest.csvkpi_scorecard.csv :: go_debt_pct_actual_value (5% statutory debt limit)high
2026-04-01_attachments_b_01_02_pfm_summary_of_comprehensive_fiscal_analysis_tax_anticipation_warrantsB_01_02_PFM Summary of Comprehensive Fiscal Analysis - Tax Anticipation Warrants.pdfgf_forecast.csv :: base-case GF revenue & expenditure (FY2026-FY2029)high
2026-04-01_attachments_b_01_01_capital_outlay_borrowing_need_memo_update_for_4_1B_01_01_Capital Outlay Borrowing Need Memo Update for 4_1.pdfgf_forecast.csv + monthly_liquidity.csv :: warrant & financing assumptionshigh
2026-06-09_attachments_k_02_01_pfm_presentation_iccsd_capital_funding_capacity_save_ppel_06092026K_02_01_PFM Presentation ICCSD Capital Funding Capacity SAVE & PPEL 06092026.pdfgf_forecast.csv + monthly_liquidity.csv :: capital-funding & SAVE repayment contexthigh
undated_dom_cash_reserve_levycash-reserve-levy.csvgf_forecast.csv :: FY2024 assigned+unassigned anchor ($14,881,750)high
2026-01-27_attachments_l_01_01_resolution_approving_interfund_loan_iccsdL_01_01_Resolution Approving Interfund Loan ICCSD.pdfmonthly_liquidity.csv :: dated interfund/property cash eventshigh
2026-02-10_attachments_k_02_01_fy26_quarter_2_financial_report_1K_02_01_FY26 Quarter 2 Financial Report (1).pdfmonthly_liquidity.csv :: FY2025 seasonality ; monthly_liquidity.csv :: start cash positionmedium
2026-04-01_attachments_b_01_01_capital_outlay_borrowing_need_memo_update_for_4_1B_01_01_Capital Outlay Borrowing Need Memo Update for 4_1.pdfmonthly_liquidity.csv :: dated interfund/property cash eventshigh
2026-05-12_attachments_f_18_02_hills_property_notice_of_public_hearing_deposit_of_proceeds_to_generaF_18_02_Hills Property Notice of Public Hearing Deposit of Proceeds to Genera.pdfmonthly_liquidity.csv :: dated interfund/property cash eventslow
2026-05-12_attachments_k_02_01_financials_as_of_3_31_26_board_mtg_5_12_26K_02_01_Financials as of 3.31.26 Board Mtg 5.12.26.pdfmonthly_liquidity.csv :: start cash positionmedium
2026-05-12_attachments_l_04_02_resolution_approving_interfund_loan_gf_to_save_iowa_city_csdL_04_02_Resolution Approving Interfund Loan GF to SAVE Iowa City CSD.pdfmonthly_liquidity.csv :: dated interfund/property cash eventshigh
Scope & honesty note. Audited solvency and operating margin exist only for FY2020–FY2023; FY2024–FY2025 ACFRs are not yet filed, so those cells are blank by design. Forecast and liquidity figures are projections built on the PFM model and the dated events above — verify against the primary PDFs for anything consequential.